Welcome to the second edition of the Inflation Research Digest, a quarterly newsletter published by the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research.
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header 2025-Q4

Welcome to the second edition of the Inflation Research Digest, a quarterly newsletter published by the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research. It highlights research papers from the Federal Reserve System and other institutions, announces calls for papers for workshops and conferences, and provides links to inflation-related data.

FEATURED PAPERS

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Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data  by Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta

 

The authors use high-frequency, disaggregated price data together with standard structural break techniques to provide early signals of inflation turning points.

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The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
by Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens, Alexander W. Richter, and Xiaoqing Zhou

 

The authors study the implications of the surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024 in the US. They document a negligible response in inflation from the immigration surge after accounting for the facts that new immigrants were primarily low skilled compared to the existing labor force and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers.

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ADDITIONAL PAPERS 

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Import Source Reallocation and Aggregate Price Dynamics in the United States
by Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam and Fernando Leibovic

    Inflation Since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges
    by Ina Hajdini, Adam Hale Shapiro, Andrew Lee Smith, and Daniel Villar 

      The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Consumer Expectations and Spending
      by Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, and Olivier Coibion

        Stagflationary Stock Returns
        by Benjamin Knox and Yannick Timmer

          The Causal Effect of News on Inflation Expectations
          by Carola Binder, Pascal Frank, and Jane M. Ryngaert

            Inflation Factors
            by Danilo Leiva-León, Viacheslav Sheremirov, Jenny Tang, and Egon Zakrajšek

              Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators
              by Ece Fisgin, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Alex Haag, and Mitch Lott

                Implications of Fiscal-Monetary Interaction from HANK Models
                by Greg Kaplan

                  Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution: Factors of Hysteresis
                  by Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong Eo

                    Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms
                    by Ina Hajdini, Saten Kumar, Samreen Malik, Jordan J. Norris, and Mathieu Pedemonte 

                      Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy
                      by Jesus Cañas, Emily Kerr, and Diego Morales-Burnett

                        Random Walk Forecasts of Stationary Processes Have Low Bias
                        by Kenneth D. West and Kurt G. Lunsford

                          Market Rents and CPI Shelter Inflation
                          by Laurence M. Ball and Kyung Woong Koh

                            The Legacy of High Inflation on Monetary Policy Rules
                            by Luis I. Jacome, Nicolas E. Magud, Samuel Pienknagura, and Martín Uribe

                              Consumer Wealth and Price Expectations
                              by Rodrigo Dias, Gavan Fitzsimons, and Eesha Sharma

                                Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain
                                by Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay, and Paolo Mengano

                                  Global Inflation, Regional Factors
                                  by Viacheslav Sheremirov and Hillary Stein

                                    Granular Markups and Inflation Surge: The Role of Managerial Incentives
                                    by Yuchen Chen, Juliana Salomao, Varun Sharma, and Yicheng Wang

                                      Implications of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy Strategies
                                      by Hess Chung, Callum Jones, Antoine Lepetit, and Fernando M. Martin

                                        Retrospective on the Federal Reserve Board Staff's Inflation Forecast Errors since 2019
                                        by Ekaterina Peneva, Jeremy Rudd, and Daniel Villar

                                          Beyond the Taylor Rule
                                          by Emi Nakamura, Venance Riblier, and Jón Steinsson 

                                            Expectation Response Functions in Dynamic Linear Economies
                                            by Ryan Chahrour and Kyle Jurado

                                              Why Is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Low?
                                              by Enghin Atalay, Ali Hortaçsu, Nicole Kimmel, and Chad Syverson 

                                                Monetary-Fiscal Interactions
                                                by John H. Cochrane 

                                                  Türkiye's Homemade Crises
                                                  by A. Hakan Kara and Alp Simsek 

                                                    Tariffs, Trade Wars, and the Natural Rate of Interest
                                                    by Neil Mehrotra and Michael E. Waugh

                                                      Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter
                                                      by Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairó, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

                                                        Core Inflation in the Advanced Economies: A Regional Perspective
                                                        by Daniel O. Beltran and Julio L. Ortiz

                                                          Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience
                                                          by Anna Lipińska, Enrique Martínez García, and Felipe Schwartzman

                                                            One Policy Rate, Many Stances: Evidence from the European Monetary Union
                                                            by Manuel González-Astudillo and Diego Vilán

                                                              The Price of Delay: Supply Chain Disruptions and Pricing Dynamics
                                                              by Salomé Baslandze and Simon Fuchs

                                                                The Inflationary Footprint of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated U.S. Spending
                                                                by Guido Ascari, Anna Florio, Alessandro Gobbi, and Leonardo Melosi

                                                                  Bond-Stock Comovements
                                                                  by John Y. Campbell, Carolin Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira

                                                                    Bond Convenience Yields in the Eurozone Currency Union
                                                                    by Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan

                                                                      Tariffs as Fiscal Policy
                                                                      by Kimberly A. Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld

                                                                        Community Rating and Vertical Price Distortions in Insurance Menus
                                                                        by Honglin Li, Chenyuan Liu, and Justin R. Sydnor

                                                                          Jealousy of Trade: Exclusionary Preferences and Economic Nationalism
                                                                          by Alex Imas, Kristóf Madarász, and Heather Sarsons

                                                                            Banking Crises, Nonlinear Export Elasticities, and the Dominant Currency Paradigm
                                                                            by Robin Brooks and Eswar S. Prasad

                                                                              A Narrative Account of the Great Inflation in the UK 1961-1997
                                                                              by Michael D. Bordo, Oliver Bush, and Ryland Thomas

                                                                                Housing Betas
                                                                                by Monika Piazzesi

                                                                                  State-Dependent Sticky Expectations: Evidence and Theory
                                                                                  by Kenneth Eva, Michael J. Lamla, and Damjan Pfajfar

                                                                                    How Do Rising Temperatures Affect Inflation Expectations?
                                                                                    by Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny, Justus Meyer, and Maarten van Rooij

                                                                                      On the Limits of Hedging Inflation Risk in Investment Portfolios
                                                                                      by Damiaan Chen, Roel Beetsma, and Sweder van Wijnbergen

                                                                                        Assessing the Role of Global Demand and Supply Shocks in the Recent US Inflation Experience Using a Cross-Country Panel Dataset of Professional Forecasts
                                                                                        by Patrick C Higgens

                                                                                          The Economic Consequences of War
                                                                                          by Efraim Benmelech and Joao Monteiro 

                                                                                            Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys
                                                                                            by Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris, and Salma Khalid 

                                                                                              Career Concerns in Collective Decision-Making: The Federal Open Market Committee
                                                                                              by Matias Iaryczower, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, and Paola Moscariello

                                                                                                Who Pays for Tariffs Along the Supply Chain? Evidence from European Wine Tariffs
                                                                                                by Aaron B. Flaaen, Ali Hortaçsu, Felix Tintelnot, Nicolás Urdaneta, and Daniel Xu

                                                                                                  Lessons for Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers from the Great Recession and the COVID Recession
                                                                                                  by Karen Dynan and Douglas Elmendorf

                                                                                                    The Austerity Threshold
                                                                                                    by Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

                                                                                                      LLM Survey Framework: Coverage, Reasoning, Dynamics, Identification
                                                                                                      by Jing Cynthia Wu, Jin Xi, and Shihan Xie

                                                                                                        Monetary Policy and Housing Overvaluation
                                                                                                        by Nina Biljanovska, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Amir Kermani, and Rui C. Mano

                                                                                                          CALLS FOR PAPERS

                                                                                                          • The International Research Forum on Monetary Policy
                                                                                                          • Women in Economic Theory Conference
                                                                                                          • Inaugural CMT Conference on Expectations and Behavior

                                                                                                          CfIR DATA UPDATES

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                                                                                                          • Median CPI
                                                                                                          • Median PCE Inflation
                                                                                                          • Inflation Nowcasting
                                                                                                          • Inflation Expectations
                                                                                                          • Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE)
                                                                                                          • Inflation Charting

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