In Ohio, the lowest 10 percent of earners have seen stronger wage increases recently, a shift that has narrowed income inequality to its lowest point in more than two decades.
Beth Hammack began work as the Cleveland Fed’s 12th president on August 21 and has already started engaging with business, civic, and community leaders across the region. Learn more about what she is doing.
OUR NATION
Inflation
Cleveland Fed survey: CEOs expect inflation to dip
Senior executives participating in the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) think that consumer price index-measured inflation will be 3.4 percent over the next 12 months, down from 3.8 percent in the April survey. Get the details.
Do social networks play a role in our expectations of inflation?
Slowing wage growth in parts of service sector could help reduce inflation
Lower wage growth in the education and health and leisure and hospitality sectors is expected to put downward pressure on inflation later this year or in early 2025. Read how researchers teased out the scope and timing of service-sector wage changes.
Why aren’t all rent inflation measures alike?
Rent costs account for about one-third of a widely used inflation gauge, making accurate rent calculations a crucial part of inflation predictions. Learn how rent measures differ and what that means for monetary policymakers.
Banking
Banks used reciprocal deposits to increase insurance coverage
Impacted by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, banks exchanged deposits over the $250,000 insurance coverage limit to make them insured. Find out what changed to enable greater use of these reciprocal deposits.
Small Business
Some firms with federal disaster loans struggle with debt burdens
Small businesses that received COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) tend to have elevated levels of debt and more challenging finances than those without such loans. Learn more about these findings from the 2023 Small Business Credit Survey.
Small Business Credit Survey is open for (small) business
Owners of businesses with fewer than 500 employees are invited to take this annual Fed survey and share their experience. Nonprofits that work with small businesses may partner with the Fed to promote the survey and invite small businesses to participate. Deadline for survey responses is November 1.
Economic Inclusion
Incentives for new manufacturing could reduce earnings inequality, report finds
Investments spurred by the IRA and CHIPS Acts for the development of clean energy and semiconductor and electronics production could narrow the earnings gap between non-college- and college-educated workers, according to Bank researchers. Read about insights they gained into the employment and earnings of non-college-educated workers by studying the US shale boom.
People and Households
What lessons can we learn from the Great Recession house-price boom?
A fall in current house prices would likely lead to an increase in delinquencies but wouldn’t create broader instability, according to economists who examined house prices in the 2000s for clues about what might happen if the current boom faltered. Read their findings.
OUR COMMUNITIES
People and Households
August Beige Book highlights uneven economic activity in our region
While residential construction and real estate activity declined, demand for professional and business services grew moderately, and employment levels were stable to slightly up. Read more.
Economic Inclusion
Is reduced wage inequality in Ohio a blip or a trend?
In Ohio, the lowest 10 percent of earners have seen stronger wage increases recently, a shift that has narrowed income inequality to its lowest point in more than two decades. Will the trend persist? Find out more.
New financial literacy guides for elementary and middle schools
The childcare sector faces staff shortages and high costs. Read and listen as researchers from the Cleveland and Boston Feds and a nonprofit discuss ways of putting a dent in the problems.
For a more in-depth look at issues around childcare…
Spend some time with "'Those Who Need It Can’t Afford It': How Childcare Challenges Are Curbing Economic Opportunity," a multimedia exploration of how a number of parents struggle to access and afford childcare so they can go to work.
Workforce
The COVID-19-era employment recovery has been robust. But what kinds of jobs have been created?
The quality of jobs being created should be a factor in considering the health of the labor market, but that’s not always simple to measure. Read one researcher's analysis suggesting job growth has been generally biased toward high-pay industries in recent years.
Outreach
Tour our national historic landmark for free
“Not only is this building breathtaking, it is also an amazing place to learn about the history of money,” wrote one online reviewer of our Bank’s Cleveland headquarters. Book your group (10 people minimum) for a guided tour.
DAY IN THE LIFE
Editor's note:Our subscribers asked for more information about the people of the Federal Reserve, so we offer this feature: Day in the Life. This month, we feature a contact who shares economic and community conditions with the Fed for its Beige Bookreport.
Meet Dan Young, chief executive officer of Young’s Jersey Dairy in Yellow Springs, Ohio. Young is one of the business and community leaders the Cleveland Fed surveys several times a year to help understand developments in the economy that data by themselves don’t show.
What’s your business, and how has it evolved over time?
The family farm was founded in 1869, and then the family lost the farm during the Great Depression. My grandfather bought it back in the late 1940s, right after World War II, from a couple of neighbors. We had our 60 acres here, and we also did some other farming down the road: raised some hogs, milked some cows, grew some corn and soybeans and wheat. It was a general farm doing a little bit of everything as opposed to today, when farms specialize in one thing. In the late 50s, early 60s, we started selling our milk straight to the public. Then we started selling more stuff, and a dairy in Dayton asked to make ice cream for us under our name. In 1981, we started making our ice cream in-house. In the late 80s and early 90s we added miniature golf, a driving range, batting cages, wagon rides, and other activities. Three years ago, we built a new building to house our current store. We draw around a million guest visits a year.
What do you find interesting about what your business tells you about the wider state of the economy?
Young’s Jersey Dairy is a consumer business. We sell a mix of things here, from foods, including homemade ice cream and cheese, to entertainment, such as group picnics. We do a lot of transactions, but we want people to come here because they like coming here, not just to get an ice cream cone or a milkshake. We’ve been trying to grow the entertainment part because it has no food cost, and its margins are better. So, we hit different markets here at Young’s, and we certainly have a good feel for what southwestern Ohio is doing and how confident people are feeling. We would notice if it were really suddenly different. Year to date, we’re just about flat with last year on guest counts, and on sales we’re up 5 or 6 percent overall, about the same as our prices are up.
Why do you contribute your input to the Beige Book, and what would you say to other business leaders who don’t know what the Beige Book is?
I like telling people that I do this. I say, “You guys, the Fed needs to hear from Main Street, not just Wall Street.” I don’t know how many people the Fed talks to every month around the country, but I appreciate the fact that it uses resources to do that because you can’t just rely on numbers. What’s really going on out there? Listening to us, you’re going to hear what people are saying and thinking, and I think normally that’s going to help predict what the numbers might look like a few months from now.
ON THE CALENDAR
Wednesdays!
Guided tours of the Cleveland Fed, a national historic landmark
