On the menu this month are fresh insights into the Cleveland Fed region, including an upgraded Business Outlook and Trends Survey with expanded data from more firms across more locations, plus the dependable Beige Book snapshot of commerce and consumer spending in our communities. Subscribers like you also asked to learn more about the Fed’s role in the economy, so we’re featuring president Beth Hammack’s recent speech on how Fed credibility underpins the dollar’s global status, plus a new explainer on what causes inflation. And don’t miss our Day in the Life feature with bank examiner Josh Hancher, who shares what joining the Cleveland Fed has been like.
The Cleveland Fed Digest team
Today's Definition
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index noun
Imagine we’re grilling burgers. You probably remember when these same patties used to cost $8 for a pack, and now they’re maybe $12. That’s basically what the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index tracks—it’s the government’s way of keeping tabs on how much the prices are changing for a range of goods and services that are being consumed by households. Not just on burgers, but on streaming services, haircuts, gas, doctor’s visits, that coffee you grab every morning, and many other things. It’s like a giant shopping receipt for the cost of living across the entire country, and economists watch it to see if there are ongoing increases in the general price level of goods and services over time, which is inflation.
OUR COMMUNITIES
A look at how the Bank’s cash operation supports the US financial system
The counting, sorting, shredding, inspecting, and packaging services of the Cleveland Fed’s cash-processing facilities were featured in a recent TV news report.
The poorest third of renters saw their real income left over after paying rent fall by more than 25 percent from 2019 through 2023, a period of historically high rent growth.
Dollars-and-cents wage growth lags among lower-income workers
Despite strong nominal wage increases during the pandemic, inflation ate into gains for lower-income workers, leaving these workers worse off than would be expected based on prepandemic trends.
Fewer than a third of eligible out-of-work people receive unemployment insurance (UI). Why?
Researchers spotlighted barriers including confusing eligibility requirements, cumbersome application processes, and concerns about how UI might impact receipt of other social service benefits.
What did consumers and professional forecasters tell us in 2025 about where they thought inflation was heading?
Professional forecasters’ inflation expectations were stable and consistent with the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal, but consumers’ expectations rose sharply and moved further away from the inflation goal.
Residual seasonality: a factor to consider when measuring short-term inflation
Inflation for two key parts of the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—the Fed’s preferred gauge for measuring inflation—tends to be higher in January than in November and December.
Hammack: Fed credibility key to US dollar’s status as world’s dominant currency
The dollar’s position as thego-to currency for global commerce is underpinned by an independent and accountable Federal Reserve that maintains the world’s confidence in delivering on commitments, including achieving a 2 percent inflation goal, Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack said in a March 6 speech at the 2026 US Monetary Policy Forum in New York.
People who seldom or never use banks still see value in banking relationships and don’t always find nonbank financial institutions adequate substitutes for traditional banking, according to focus groups conducted by Bank researchers.
Revenue and employment growth held steady, though slightly more firms reported revenue declines than increases, and the outlook for growth dimmed, according to the latest report from the Small Business Credit Survey.
US business leaders expect consumer price index inflation to be 3.1 percent over the next 12 months in the latest reading of the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), down from 3.3 percent in the previous survey.
Editor's note: Our subscribers asked for more information about the people of the Federal Reserve.
Meet Josh Hancher, an examiner for the Cleveland Fed’s regional banking team. He started his professional career in Cleveland during the financial crisis working at a bank. He then spent 12 years in New York, first at one institution as the US head of capital management and then at another as a director in enterprise risk management, before moving back to Cleveland with his family.
What has surprised you most about the Bank?
There is an entrepreneurial spirit here. Employees want to do things better and are open-minded about suggestions for ways to innovate and improve. If an idea is good and it’s being pursued for the right reasons, colleagues will tell you how to make your idea better and connect you with the right individuals to make it happen.
What are some of the challenges of your job?
Stakeholder management. I view every interaction with bankers as an opportunity to strengthen our credibility. This responsibility requires a variety of skills. Examiners have to analyze and establish fact patterns, engage with a variety of personalities, manage processes, and demonstrate sound judgment and discretion across sensitive supervisory topics.
How do you spend your time outside of the Bank?
I’ve been able to be a part of my children’s lives in a way that was not possible prior to joining the Federal Reserve, a true gift. Previous jobs were rewarding, but the Federal Reserve has provided a much better balance between my professional and personal life. Being a part of everyday things, like taking my daughters to the library, attending school concerts, or running errands together on the weekends, has been really meaningful.
I’m also an avid guitar player and have found time to play guitar for a local tribute band. One misconception I had about pursuing this hobby is that the time spent would not be applicable to my professional life, but the experience has taught me valuable lessons that translate directly to my day job. For example, I noticed the biggest improvements in my guitar playing when I started practicing 10 minutes a day instead of a few marathon practice sessions during the week. This experience was a tangible example of how small daily habits can add up to big outcomes.
What do you find rewarding or enjoyable about your job?
I like the people I work with. I have a lot in common with my colleagues when it comes to the big stuff, like shared values, philosophies, and principles in how we approach our work and make decisions. This makes work more impactful because we get to focus on the core content of our work instead of debating the fundamental values and principles that guide our decisionmaking. We spend half or more of our waking hours during a typical weekday with colleagues, so developing strong relationships at the Bank is both necessary and rewarding. A lot of our colleagues’ time spent working together is measured in decades. These shared experiences create strong bonds, and I think that is a strength of the Federal Reserve.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 1455 E 6th St, Cleveland, OH 44114, US
